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아 래
제목: How can population pyramids be used to explore the past?
연사: Prof. Bertrand Roehner (University of Paris)
일시: 2010년 10월 15일(금) 오후 3시
장소: 제1과학관 e+강의실(31214호실)
강연문의: 김범준
초록: How many lives did the civil war in Jiangxi (1927-1936) cost?
Nobody knows because in the 1930s
there were no reliable censuses and the Kuomintang Government
did not keep a count. This is only one example.
Many historical events such as major
wars, insurrections or revolutions occur amid periods
of great turmoil during which governmental statistical
agencies cannot work properly or cannot work at all.
As a result,
historians are unable to
estimate the demographical impact of such events
in terms of death toll, extent of migration
or birth rate changes.
One possible solution to this problem is to analyze
population pyramids
based on censuses conducted 20 or 50 years later at a time
when the
normal work of statistical agencies has been resumed.
This approach is similar to the one used in the study
of tree rings (a field called dendrochonology) which gives
an insight into weather conditions during former centuries.
This lecture explains our methodological ideas
and illustrates them through specific examples.